We've got three fourth-round picks from the Madrid Open today, and there's a decent mix of straightforward calls and at least one that feels genuinely hard to read. Let's get into it.
Madrid Open Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli
Head-to-head: Medvedev 2-0 Cobolli
Medvedev has beaten Cobolli both times they've met, and clay isn't exactly where Daniil has historically looked his most comfortable. But Cobolli's rise to world number 16 has come largely on hard courts, and in Madrid, on this heavy red clay, Medvedev's ability to grind and redirect pace actually works in his favour. He's become so good at not panicking in long rallies and Cobolli will need to do something extraordinary to break through that.
I think this one goes three sets, because Cobolli is scrappy enough to make it awkward for at least a set, but Medvedev's experience at this level should be the difference.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head: First meeting
Zverev is one of the best clay-court players on tour right now, and Madrid is practically a second home for him at this point. Mensik is an exciting young player and he's shown real quality on hard courts, but clay at this level, against this opponent, is a big ask. The slow conditions drag points out and Zverev is patient enough to wait for exactly the right ball before stepping in.
Hard to see this being competitive at all.
Prediction: Zverev in 2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 3-3 Ruud
This is the one that's genuinely interesting. The H2H is perfectly level at 3-3, and Tsitsipas, despite sliding down to 67 in the world, was built for clay and genuinely capable of beating anyone on this surface on a good day. That said, he's had a rough stretch and Ruud has been the more consistent of the two over the last year, with better results and more confidence to draw on right now.
I feel like the ranking gap reflects real form here, not just a bad run of luck for Stefanos, and Ruud's steadiness from the baseline should be enough to see him through in two, all things considered.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Dennis Agyeman/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire