Three third round picks from Madrid today, and there's a lot to like here. An all-Argentine clash, a generational matchup, and one of the more evenly split rivalries on tour. Let's get into it.
Madrid Open Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Fokina 3-3 Ruud
As even as it gets on paper, but the last time these two met matters here. Ruud has been one of the more consistent clay-court performers on tour for years and Madrid is one of his better events, while Fokina is the kind of player who can beat anyone on a given day and then lose to someone ranked 80th the following week. The altitude in Madrid, which consistently produces some of the quickest conditions in the clay-court swing, tends to produce a faster, bouncier ball and that actually suits Ruud's heavy topspin forehand more than you'd think.
Fokina's aggression can cause problems early in a set, and this one could easily go three. That said, I think Ruud's consistency over a full match wins out and he should still find a way to get through here.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik
Head-to-head: Khachanov 2-0 Mensik
Mensik is a genuinely exciting young player and his serve and ball-striking can trouble almost anyone, but Khachanov owns this H2H and clay is not where the Czech teenager does his best work. Hard to see this being competitive at all. Khachanov's big frame and heavy groundstrokes are a tough template to crack on a slower surface and with two wins already in the bank against Mensik, he knows exactly what he's dealing with.
Prediction: Khachanov in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head: Cerundolo 3-3 Darderi
This is the match of the day for me. Two Argentines, dead level head-to-head, both ranked within two spots of each other, both clay-court specialists. Cerundolo has shown flashes of real quality this season but Darderi has been quietly putting together a strong year and is comfortable making opponents uncomfortable in long rallies. Split series like this one tend to come down to who's moving better on the day, and right now I feel like Darderi has a slight edge in that department.
Prediction: Darderi in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Oscar J. Barroso/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire