Three picks from the Madrid fourth round to get through today, and it's a decent mix of a near-certain result and two matches that could genuinely go either way. We've got our predictions below.
Madrid Open Predictions
Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Lehecka 2-1 Musetti
Lehecka leads this rivalry and the last win is what matters most here, a straight-sets result that showed he's comfortable being aggressive against Musetti's one-handed backhand. Musetti has been the better clay-court mover historically, but Lehecka's flat ball-striking can rush him before he gets into his rhythm.
That said, this is a three-setter in the making. Musetti will find stretches in this match, and on Madrid clay he's dangerous enough to take a set. But I think Lehecka's ability to raise his level on the big points gets him through, all things considered.
Prediction: Lehecka in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: First meeting
First meetings between these two, which is a little surprising given how long Norrie has been a tour regular. Sinner wins this. There's not much more to say. Norrie is solid and will grind, but Sinner has been in a different class to almost everyone on tour this year and slower clay conditions won't change that. Hard to see this being competitive at all. Norrie's lefty slice can be awkward for some players, but Sinner has become so good at not panicking in long rallies that it's hard to see that being a real problem.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: Fokina 3-3 Ruud
As level as a head-to-head gets, and both players have won on clay in this rivalry, so there's no surface edge to lean on here. Fokina at home in Spain is a different animal, and the Madrid crowd will absolutely be behind him, but Ruud has been one of the most consistent clay performers on tour for years and tends to find his best tennis in the Masters events.
I feel like the conditions in Madrid, which tend to be a bit quicker than Rome or Barcelona, slightly favour Ruud's heavier topspin over Fokina's more erratic power game and that combination of consistency and surface speed feels like it tilts things his way. Close match, probably three sets.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
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