A few second-round picks from Madrid today, and there's some genuinely interesting stuff on the clay at the Caja Mágica. Which of these do you think produces a surprise?
Madrid Open Predictions
Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik
Head-to-head: Khachanov 2-0 Mensik
Khachanov holds the H2H, but Mensik has been on a completely different trajectory over the past year and those earlier results feel like a long time ago. He's become so good at not panicking in rallies and on clay he can hurt you from both wings without necessarily grinding you down the way the surface usually demands.
Khachanov isn't uncompetitive here and his big serve will keep him in points, but I think Mensik has enough firepower and variety to flip this one. Three sets feels right.
Prediction: Mensik in 3
Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti
Head-to-head: Griekspoor 2-0 Musetti
The H2H is a bit of a curiosity given how much better Musetti is on clay, and Griekspoor's two wins came on hard courts where his flat, direct hitting is a real problem. On this surface it's a different conversation entirely. Musetti's one-handed backhand slice, net game, and ability to change pace make clay his playground and Griekspoor doesn't have the variety to consistently hurt him here.
Prediction: Musetti in 2
Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Michelsen
Head-to-head: Lehecka 0-1 Michelsen
Michelsen got Lehecka in their only previous meeting, so there's a data point worth noting, but clay in Madrid is probably the surface that suits Lehecka best of the two. He's been solid this spring and his heavy topspin off the baseline is well suited to the conditions at altitude here, where the ball sits up and rewards that kind of hitting.
That said, Michelsen is a capable player and won't make it easy, but Lehecka should still find a way to get through here, all things considered.
Prediction: Lehecka in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Irina R. Hipolito/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire