Three fourth-round picks from the Italian Open today, and honestly it's a fascinating set of matches with a couple of results that could genuinely surprise people. We've got our takes below.
Italian Open Predictions
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: First meeting
On paper this looks straightforward for Medvedev, but clay in Rome is a real leveler and Tirante is genuinely dangerous here. He's one of those players who fights for every point on this surface and makes life miserable for bigger hitters who want to dictate. Medvedev has always had a complicated relationship with clay, and his ranking at number 10 right now reflects a level that still isn't quite where it was two years ago.
Tirante's game on slow clay, staying in rallies and making opponents work, is exactly the kind of thing that gets under Medvedev's skin. I think this goes three sets and Tirante finds a way through, all things considered.
Prediction: Tirante in 3
Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic
Head-to-head: First meeting
Prizmic has been quietly putting together a solid clay swing and the 19-year-old Croat has more game than his ranking suggests, especially on this surface. Khachanov is a tough opponent on any given day, but he's been inconsistent in 2025 and hasn't strung together a convincing run at any event recently. The slow conditions in Rome tend to drag out rallies in a way that suits a young grinder more than a big server looking for short points.
Prizmic takes this one.
Prediction: Prizmic in 3
Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Head-to-head: Rublev 4-3 Basilashvili
That head-to-head is closer than you'd expect given how different their current trajectories are, but Basilashvili at 117 in the world, a ranking that tells the whole story of where his career is right now, isn't the same player who used to torch Rublev on hard courts. Rublev on clay has always been comfortable, using his heavy topspin forehand to push opponents deep and control the tempo, and at this stage of the tournament he should be well into his rhythm.
That said, Basilashvili can still hit the ball hard on a good day, but the consistency just isn't there anymore and Rublev handles this without much drama.
Prediction: Rublev in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Laurent Lairys/ZUMA Press Wire