We've got one semi-final pick from the Italian Open today, and it's a big one. Sinner against Medvedev in Rome, on clay, with a home crowd behind the world number one.
Italian Open Predictions
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-head: Sinner leads 9-7
These two have played 16 times, and at this point the head-to-head tells you everything about where Sinner is in his career. Medvedev used to own this matchup, but Sinner has flipped it completely over the last couple of years, winning the most important meetings when it mattered most. Medvedev's game is built for hard courts, and on clay his flat ball-striking loses a lot of its venom, especially when the opponent is as solid defensively as Sinner.
Medvedev has never been comfortable here in Rome, and Sinner playing in front of his home crowd is a genuinely different animal. Hard to see this being competitive at all. I think this one stays straight, Sinner controls the rallies from the baseline and Medvedev doesn't find enough angles to create the chaos he needs, all things considered.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
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Credit Image: © Massimo Insabato/Mondadori Portfolio via ZUMA Press