Two semi-final picks from the WTA Italian Open today, and honestly one of them is pretty straightforward while the other has upset written all over it. Who do you think makes the final in Rome?
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Svitolina 3-4 Rybakina
It's a close head-to-head on paper, but Rybakina has won the last two meetings and Svitolina has never really found a reliable answer to that serve. On clay, where the points are supposed to get longer and the big hitter is meant to be neutralised, Rybakina's groundstrokes are still flat and heavy enough to dictate and Svitolina doesn't have the firepower to hurt her off the baseline the way some other players can.
Svitolina is a grinder and she'll make it uncomfortable, especially in the second set if Rybakina goes through a loose patch. But Rybakina wins this more often than not and I think she gets through here, even if it takes three sets.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Sorana Cirstea vs Cori Gauff
Head-to-head: Cirstea 0-3 Gauff
The H2H says Gauff every time, and Gauff is the higher-ranked player coming into a slam-tier clay event as one of the favourites. Hard to see this being competitive at all on paper. That said, Cirstea at her best on clay is genuinely dangerous. She hits clean and flat through the court, takes time away from her opponents and has the experience to manage big moments on a surface she's comfortable on. Gauff hasn't looked completely settled this clay swing either.
The 0-3 record is hard to ignore, but all three of those matches, including their most recent on a faster surface, came when Cirstea arguably had less to work with. I feel like the conditions in Rome suit her game more than that record suggests, and she pulls off the upset in three.
Prediction: Cirstea in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Dennis Agyeman/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire