Three picks from the third round in Rome today, and the headliner is a big one. Can Cirstea pull off the upset against Sabalenka? Let's get into it.
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 2-1 Cirstea
On paper this is a mismatch. Sabalenka is the world number one and has been one of the best players on the tour for two years now, and Cirstea at 34 is hardly the obvious player to bring her down on clay in Rome. But Cirstea is a genuinely tricky opponent for big hitters because she takes the ball early and disrupts rhythm, and the slow Roman clay could actually work against Sabalenka if she isn't finding the court with her first serve.
The H2H doesn't tell us much here since their last meeting, played on a completely different surface, was on a completely different surface and Cirstea has been playing some solid tennis lately. Upsets happen, and I think this is one of those days where the conditions and the matchup line up just right for the upset.
Prediction: Cirstea in 3
Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider
Head-to-head: First meeting
First meeting between two players who are both a little hard to read right now. Shnaider has been one of the more impressive young players on the tour this season, but Osaka on clay has been better than people remember and she's shown real fight in getting back to a ranking inside the top 20 after everything she's been through. Shnaider's game is built for faster surfaces, and the heavy conditions in Rome should blunt some of her pace.
Feels like a tight one that goes the distance, with Osaka's experience pulling her through in the third.
Prediction: Osaka in 3
Elina Svitolina vs Hailey Baptiste
Head-to-head: Svitolina 1-1 Baptiste
Svitolina is one of the better defensive clay-court players still on tour and Baptiste, for all her athleticism, hasn't shown she can consistently construct points well enough to break down a player like that. Hard to see the tied H2H meaning much here, and Svitolina at her level is a different proposition in Rome at a big event than she might be elsewhere.
That said, Svitolina wins this, probably in three as Baptiste makes it competitive for a set, all things considered.
Prediction: Svitolina in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Marcin Cholewinski/ZUMA Press Wire