We've got three picks from the Italian Open first round to get into today, and there are some genuinely interesting matchups here. Rome's clay tends to be slow and heavy, which matters a lot for a couple of these.
Italian Open Predictions
Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone
Head-to-head: Shapovalov 0-1 Navone
Their only previous meeting went to Navone, and that was on clay in Madrid last year, so there's no mystery about how this surface splits them. Shapovalov has always been an awkward fit on clay. The lefty serve and the one-handed backhand give him some weapons, but he tends to go missing in the long grinding rallies that Rome's courts demand and Navone is exactly the kind of player who will drag him into those.
Navone has been quietly building a solid clay record over the past year and a half and he's ranked higher than people probably realize. I think this goes three sets but Navone finds a way through.
Prediction: Navone in 3
Zizou Bergs vs Terence Atmane
Head-to-head: First meeting
Two players ranked almost identically, neither of them clay specialists, meeting for the first time. Bergs is the more consistent performer of the two and has shown he can grind on this surface, which counts for a lot in Rome. Atmane is an interesting player with a big game but can be streaky, and in a best-of-three on slow clay against someone as steady as Bergs, that inconsistency tends to cost you. Hard to see this being competitive at all.
Prediction: Bergs in 3
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 1-1 Machac
The ranking gap here is a bit misleading. Tsitsipas at 80 in the world is not the same as most players at 80 in the world, and he's been rebuilding some form on clay, the surface he's always loved the most. Machac is a genuine threat and won one of their two meetings, but Tsitsipas on Roman clay, with the heavy topspin forehand and the net game, feels like a different player to the one who's been struggling elsewhere.
That said, Machac can absolutely win this. But Tsitsipas in Rome on clay, with something to prove, is not a comfortable draw for anyone, all things considered.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
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