Three picks from the WTA Italian Open second round today, and there's a decent mix of form, home crowd energy, and some interesting head-to-head stories to dig into. Let's get into it.
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 1-1 Cirstea
The H2H is level but that's a little misleading at this point in their careers. Sabalenka is the world number one and has been the most dominant player on tour for the better part of two years, and Cirstea, while dangerous on a good day, hasn't been in that kind of form lately. On Roman clay, where points can be long and the conditions slow things down, Sabalenka's ability to end rallies early with her forehand is actually a real asset, not a liability.
Cirstea can absolutely nick a set if Sabalenka has an off day, and that 1-1 record shows she's done it before. But I think Sabalenka moves through here without too much drama.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens
Head-to-head: Paolini 2-4 Mertens
This H2H is the most interesting thing about this match. Mertens leads 4-2, including a couple of wins on hard courts earlier in their careers, and has clearly had Paolini's number over the years, but the last time these two played, the rankings and form picture looked very different. Paolini reached the French Open final last year and has become genuinely hard to break down on clay, especially here in Rome where the crowd will be fully behind her. Mertens is a smart, consistent player and that record deserves respect.
That said, Paolini on home clay is a different animal, and the clay slows down Mertens' flatter ball enough that Paolini can construct points on her own terms. Feel like this goes three sets but Paolini finds a way, all things considered.
Prediction: Paolini in 3
Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya
Head-to-head: Bencic 4-0 Kalinskaya
Four from four is a pretty emphatic statement, and it's not like Kalinskaya is a bad player. She's ranked 22nd and has beaten quality opponents. Bencic just seems to have her number completely, and there's no obvious reason why clay in Rome would change that dynamic. Bencic came back from maternity leave and has been building her game back steadily and her variety and net presence are well-suited to slower conditions.
Hard to see this being competitive at all, but Bencic wins this.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Oscar J. Barroso/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire