Three picks from the second round of the WTA Italian Open in Rome today, and there's a nice mix of a potential upset brewing and a couple of matches that look pretty comfortable on paper. Let's get into it.
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens
Head-to-head: Paolini 2-4 Mertens
The H2H is a bit of a surprise given where both players are ranked right now. Mertens leads it 4-2, and she's always been the kind of player who makes Paolini uncomfortable with her flat, compact ball-striking and aggressive returning. This is also Rome, though, where Paolini reached the final last year and the crowd will be very much in her corner.
Paolini's movement on clay has become so good that she can retrieve almost anything Mertens throws at her and eventually the depth and spin in her game should start to create problems. I think this goes three sets, but the home crowd, the surface, and the momentum from last year's run get Paolini over the line.
Prediction: Paolini in 3
Maria Sakkari vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Sakkari 1-5 Rybakina
Sakkari has been struggling to find her best tennis for most of this season, and Rybakina is just a brutal matchup for her regardless of form. That serve and forehand combination is hard enough to handle when you're playing well, let alone when you're not. The 1-5 H2H tells you everything you need to know, and their lone meeting on clay, which went to three sets, was one of Rybakina's wins.
Hard to see this being competitive at all.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 6-1 Krejcikova
That one Krejcikova win came at Roland Garros in 2021, which feels like a lifetime ago. Since then Sabalenka has completely taken over their rivalry and it hasn't been particularly close. Krejcikova's ranking has slipped to 52 and she hasn't strung together consistent results in a while, so there's not much reason to think she flips this one around here on Roman clay.
Sabalenka is the number one player in the world for a reason and she's been sharp this season. That said, she should get through this without too many issues, all things considered.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Dennis Agyeman/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire