Three fourth-round picks from the WTA Italian Open to get into today, and the headliner is a big one. Swiatek against Osaka on Roman clay is exactly the kind of matchup that gets you interested, so let's see who we think comes out on top.
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek
Head-to-head: Osaka 1-2 Swiatek
Osaka's one win in this rivalry came on hard courts, and on clay it's been a different story entirely. Swiatek on this surface in Rome specifically is about as close to a home match as it gets for her, and Osaka, for all the excitement around her return to form, hasn't faced a clay puzzle anywhere near this difficult yet in this tournament. Swiatek's ability to construct points from deep in the court and drag opponents into long rallies is exactly what Osaka struggles to deal with on slow red clay.
That said, Osaka has looked sharp this week and won't just fold, which is why I think this goes three. But Swiatek closes it out.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova
Head-to-head: Cirstea 2-2 Noskova
A dead-even head-to-head and two players who can both be brilliant or maddening depending on the day. Noskova's flat ball-striking is a genuine threat on any surface, but clay tends to take away some of that pace and give defenders time to reset, and Cirstea on clay is a much trickier opponent than her ranking suggests. She's been around long enough to know how to manage these mid-draw situations and she tends to raise her level when it matters.
Cirstea in three feels right here, all things considered, and it probably won't be pretty.
Prediction: Cirstea in 3
Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova
Head-to-head: Pegula 5-0 Potapova
Five from five, and there's no real reason to think Potapova flips this today. Pegula has been quietly consistent all week and her defensive solidity on clay, which has been a theme throughout this tournament, makes her incredibly hard to hit through, which is basically Potapova's entire plan. Hard to see this being competitive at all.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Massimo Insabato/Mondadori Portfolio via ZUMA Press