We've got three picks from the fourth round of the WTA Italian Open today, and there's a lot to talk about. Andreeva trying to break a losing streak against Gauff, Swiatek and Osaka on clay, and Pegula up against a serious ranking mismatch. Which of these goes the distance?
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Cori Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva
Head-to-head: Gauff 4-0 Andreeva
Four wins from four is a convincing record and Gauff has never really been pushed hard in any of them. But Andreeva has improved so much in the last year and a half, and this feels like the kind of slow Roman clay where that improvement starts to show. She's become so good at not panicking in long rallies, and she's patient enough to wait for Gauff to make errors rather than forcing things.
Gauff hasn't looked completely convincing so far this week, and I feel like Andreeva can finally take one off her here if she keeps the ball deep and makes it physical. Three sets seems right for this one.
Prediction: Andreeva in 3
Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek
Head-to-head: Osaka 1-2 Swiatek, with Swiatek winning their most recent meetings
Osaka's ranking resurgence has been a great story, and she beat Swiatek in Brisbane earlier this year, so this isn't a complete mismatch on paper. That said, Brisbane is hard courts and this is Rome on clay, which is basically Swiatek's home office. She's won this title multiple times and she hits through the court in a way very few players can handle on this surface.
Swiatek wins this. Osaka might push her to three sets but the clay takes away enough of her flat ball-striking that she'll struggle to sustain it for a full match, all things considered.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapova
Head-to-head: Pegula 5-0 Potapova
Five from five and Potapova is ranked 51 places below Pegula right now. Hard to see this being competitive at all. Potapova can be streaky and has her moments, but she's never managed to figure out Pegula in any of their previous meetings and I don't see why Rome changes that. Pegula is consistent, keeps errors low and won't hand her anything cheaply.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Rob Prange/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire