One semi-final pick from Roland Garros today, and it's an all-Italian affair that looks much more straightforward on paper than the head-to-head record suggests.
French Open Predictions
Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
Head-to-head: Arnaldi 3-2 Cobolli
Yes, Arnaldi leads the head-to-head, but context matters a lot here. He's currently ranked 457th in the world, and whatever got him to this stage of Roland Garros, he's coming in at a massive physical and form disadvantage against a top-15 player in one of the biggest matches of the tournament. Cobolli has been playing some of the best clay-court tennis of his career this fortnight, and the slow Parisian conditions, which have been particularly unforgiving for players low on match sharpness, are perfect for his heavy topspin groundstrokes and the way he grinds opponents into the dirt over long rallies.
Arnaldi deserves credit for making it this far but hard to see this being competitive at all and Cobolli should still find a way to get through here, all things considered.
Prediction: Cobolli in 2
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Credit Image: © Marcin Cholewinski/ZUMA Press Wire