Three third-round picks from Flushing Meadows today, and honestly there's a decent amount to talk about across all of them. Which of these do you think ends in a surprise?
US Open Predictions
Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: First meeting
Vacherot has been one of the stories of the tournament so far, and reaching the third round of a Slam at 23 is no small thing, but Tiafoe on home soil at the US Open is a different beast entirely. The crowd lifts him in ways that don't show up in any stat and he's made deep runs here before, including that memorable semifinal run in 2022.
This is a first meeting between the two, so there's no H2H to lean on, but Tiafoe's power on hard courts and his ability to feed off big moments should be too much for Vacherot to handle over five sets. I think Tiafoe gets through this one, though it might not be as clean as the ranking difference suggests.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Bublik 2-5 Paul
Paul leads this H2H 5-2, and that's a pretty telling number given how many different situations these two have faced each other in. Bublik's game is always entertaining and occasionally brilliant, but it's also wildly inconsistent, and Paul is exactly the kind of calm, hard-court baseline player who exposes that inconsistency over a long match.
Bublik will have his moments, probably a set where everything clicks and the serve is untouchable, but Paul has shown he can weather those stretches and grind his way back. Hard to see this being competitive at all by the end. The H2H says enough here.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-1 Rinderknech
That H2H is level, but context matters. Rinderknech won their first meeting back in 2021 when Medvedev was still finding his footing at the top level, and Medvedev has been a completely different player since, winning the 2021 US Open and reaching multiple Slam finals. Rinderknech is big and can serve his way out of trouble, but Medvedev's ability to neutralize heavy hitters, a trait that becomes especially apparent on faster surfaces, and just refuse to panic in rallies is so hard to crack on a hard court.
That said, Medvedev wins this without too many problems, all things considered.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © PI via ZUMA Press Wire