Three third-round picks from the Italian Open today, all on clay in Rome, and honestly all three feel like they could go the distance. Let's get into it.
Italian Open Predictions
Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Ruud 2-0 Lehecka
Ruud owns this head-to-head, and both wins came on hard courts, so you could argue clay makes this even more of a Ruud match. He's one of the most natural clay-court movers on tour and Rome is a place where he's consistently gone deep. Lehecka is having a solid season and the ranking gap is almost nothing, but his flat, aggressive game tends to lose something on the slower Roman clay, where Ruud's heavy topspin and relentless consistency become harder and harder to handle.
I think this goes three sets, probably a tight one, but Ruud gets there.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: Musetti 2-2 Cerundolo
A perfectly split head-to-head and two clay-court specialists, so this one really could go either way. Musetti at home in Rome is a different player though. The crowd lifts him and his one-handed backhand and drop shot game is made for this surface and these conditions. Cerundolo is no slouch on clay either and his heavy forehand can absolutely dominate rallies, but Musetti's variety tends to cause problems that pure baseliners struggle to solve.
Musetti in three, and it'll be fun to watch.
Prediction: Musetti in 3
Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: First meeting
Bublik on clay is a strange watch. The serve-and-volley tricks and underarm serves feel like they shouldn't work, and yet he finds ways to disrupt opponents who expect a normal clay-court battle. Tien is a genuinely exciting young player and his ranking puts him right in the mix at this level, but a first-time meeting against someone as unpredictable as Bublik, on a surface that doesn't reward Tien's flatter ball-striking as much, feels like tough timing. That said, the conditions in Rome slow everything down and that generally favors the player with more clay experience, and Bublik, who has spent years navigating these slower European claycourts, simply has more of it.
Prediction: Bublik in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Oscar J. Barroso/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire