A few picks from the third round of the WTA Italian Open today, and there are some genuinely interesting matchups to get into. Let's see who we think comes through.
WTA Italian Open Predictions
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens
Head-to-head: Paolini 2-4 Mertens
The head-to-head actually favors Mertens, and this is a trickier match for the home crowd's favorite than it might look on paper. Mertens is a smart, consistent ball-striker and she's beaten Paolini enough times to know how to disrupt her rhythm. That said, Paolini on Roman clay in front of a home crowd is a different animal, and she's been growing into this tournament nicely.
I think the crowd factor and Paolini's comfort on this specific surface tips it her way, but Mertens will make her work for every point and this goes three sets.
Prediction: Paolini in 3
Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya
Head-to-head: Bencic 4-0 Kalinskaya
Four from four. At some point a head-to-head record like that stops being a coincidence and starts being a pattern and Bencic clearly has Kalinskaya's number. Kalinskaya has the weapons to hurt you on any surface, but something about the way Bencic reads her game seems to neutralize them. Clay isn't Bencic's strongest surface after her time away from the tour, so don't expect a cruise, but Kalinskaya hasn't found an answer yet.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider
Head-to-head: First meeting
Shnaider has been one of the more exciting young players on tour and she's comfortable enough on clay, so this isn't a gimme for Osaka. That said, Osaka's game has looked more settled recently and her ball-striking on the flat is the kind of thing that can shorten points even on slower surfaces. I feel like she handles the pace Shnaider brings and takes this one in three, though it probably gets competitive in the middle set, all things considered.
Prediction: Osaka in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Massimo Insabato/Mondadori Portfolio via ZUMA Press