Three picks from the fourth round in Paris today, and honestly this is a pretty compelling set of matchups. Sabalenka and Osaka is the obvious headliner, but the other two have some real intrigue to them as well. Let's get into it.
WTA French Open Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 2-1 Osaka
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head but Osaka did beat her in Miami back in 2022, so it's not like she has zero chance here. That said, Sabalenka right now is just a different animal. She's the world number one for a reason and on a slower clay surface she's able to impose herself in rallies in a way that makes life very difficult for players who rely on pace off the ball.
Osaka has been finding her footing since returning to the tour, but the level required to beat a focused Sabalenka in a fourth round Masters match isn't there yet. Sabalenka wins this comfortably.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek
Head-to-head: Kostyuk 0-3 Swiatek
Kostyuk has never beaten Swiatek, but she's the kind of player who makes things awkward and doesn't just roll over and I think that's what makes this one interesting. She hits flat and hard from the baseline and doesn't give Swiatek the high bouncing balls she loves to attack. The 0-3 record could easily be 1-2 or 2-1 in a different world.
Still, Swiatek on clay is a different proposition to almost anyone else on tour, and I feel like she finds a way through even if Kostyuk makes her work for it. Expect a tight first set before Swiatek pulls away.
Prediction: Swiatek in 3
Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider
Head-to-head: Keys 3-0 Shnaider
Three from three for Keys against Shnaider, and the pattern across those matches tells you something real. Keys is a big hitter who stays aggressive and doesn't let opponents settle, and that tends to neutralize Shnaider's own power game before it gets going. Shnaider is a genuine threat on this surface and has had a strong season, but she hasn't cracked the code against Keys yet.
That said, Keys has been playing well enough to back her here and the head-to-head advantage, which has been remarkably one-sided, is hard to ignore. Should be enough to get through, all things considered.
Prediction: Keys in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Loic Baratoux/ZUMA Press Wire