Three picks from the fourth round in Madrid today, and the headliner is a good one. Let's get into it.
WTA Madrid Open Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 1-1 Osaka
The H2H is level, but the context matters. Osaka won their first meeting back when she was playing some of the best tennis of her career, and the dynamic between these two has shifted a lot since then. Sabalenka is the world number one for a reason, and on clay in Madrid she's about as dangerous as anyone on tour right now.
Osaka has shown flashes of good tennis in her return to the tour, but this is a big ask. The slow clay will limit how much damage she can do with her flat ball-striking and Sabalenka's ability to absorb pace and redirect it is exactly what Osaka struggles against. Sabalenka wins this comfortably.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste
Head-to-head: First meeting
Bencic has been playing some genuinely impressive tennis since her return from maternity leave, and reaching the fourth round in Madrid is no small thing. Baptiste is a solid player and has earned her ranking, but hard to see this being competitive at all given Bencic's ability to redirect the ball and stay composed in long rallies, which makes her tough to crack on clay.
I feel like this one goes three just because Baptiste is physical enough to extend it, but Bencic should get there in the end.
Prediction: Bencic in 3
Ann Li vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Head-to-head: Li 2-0 Fernandez
Li owns the H2H and both wins have come on hard courts, so it'll be interesting to see how that translates to clay, a surface that typically suits Fernandez much more. Fernandez has the movement and the fight to make this uncomfortable, and you'd think the clay would level things out a bit between them.
That said, Li has looked sharp this week and a 2-0 head-to-head record, both wins coming before this clay swing, isn't nothing. I think she gets through this one, but not without being pushed.
Prediction: Li in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
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