A few fourth-round picks from the Madrid Open today, and there's a nice mix of a lopsided one and two that could genuinely go either way. Let's get into it.
WTA Madrid Open Predictions
Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Potapova 1-1 Rybakina
The H2H is level but don't let that mislead you. Potapova's win came on a hard court in Abu Dhabi, and clay is a completely different conversation for a player whose game is built around flat, direct hitting. Rybakina's serve and forehand are just as dangerous on this surface as anywhere, and she's been moving through the draw without dropping much.
Potapova will have moments, she usually does, but Rybakina is too clean and too powerful to let this get complicated.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2
Ann Li vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Head-to-head: Li 2-0 Fernandez
Li owns this H2H completely, and both wins came on hard courts, so it'll be interesting to see whether that carries over to clay in Madrid. Fernandez is a better clay-court player than Li on paper and her slice and heavy topspin combinations can really disrupt the kind of aggressive ball-striking Li likes to play. That said, 2-0 is 2-0, and there's clearly something about Fernandez's game that Li reads well.
I think this one goes three sets and comes down to who handles the big points better in the decider, and Li has the head-to-head form to back her up.
Prediction: Li in 3
Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova
Head-to-head: Sierra 0-1 Pliskova
Pliskova is ranked 197th right now but she's a former world number one and her game doesn't really age out, that serve, still arguably the best in the business, is a constant threat and clay slows things down enough that she can dictate with the forehand when she's on. Hard to see this being competitive at all given Sierra's lack of experience at this stage. Sierra is a decent clay-court player and making the fourth round at Madrid as a 90th-ranked player is no small thing, but I feel like Pliskova's big-match experience and serving ability are too much to handle in a longer match.
Prediction: Pliskova in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Oscar J. Barroso/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire