Three second-round picks from the Barcelona Open today, under partially cloudy skies and pleasant conditions in the low 20s. Alcaraz is back on home clay and the crowd will be loud, but it's not all straightforward, so let's get into it.
Barcelona Open Predictions
Tomas Machac vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: 1-1
The head-to-head is level and Machac's win came on hard courts in Shanghai last year, which is a very different proposition to Alcaraz on clay in Barcelona. Alcaraz is essentially playing a home slam here, and his clay-court tennis at its best is still the most complete game on the surface right now.
That said, Machac is genuinely tricky. He hits the ball hard, takes time away, and doesn't get overawed by big occasions. This one could easily go three sets, and I think it will. But Alcaraz finds a way.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: Fils 1-2 Nakashima
Nakashima leads the head-to-head and has clearly had Fils' number across their previous meetings. Fils is an exciting player and dangerous on clay, but his game can get loose when things aren't going his way, and Nakashima, who seems to thrive in exactly these scrappy exchanges, is patient enough to make him pay for it. The slow Barcelona clay should help Nakashima drag Fils into long rallies, and he's become so good at not panicking in those situations.
Prediction: Nakashima in 3
Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar
Head-to-head: Norrie 0-1 Jodar
Norrie's ranking flatters him a little at the moment. He hasn't been playing well lately and his clay results this season have been underwhelming. Jodar is a Spanish wildcard playing at home in front of his crowd, and he's already beaten Norrie before, which matters more than the ranking gap suggests. Hard to see this being competitive at all, and on current form there's no reason to back Norrie here.
Prediction: Jodar in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Xavi Urgeles/ZUMA Press Wire