Two big matches to get into from the US Open today, and honestly both of them have some real story behind them. Which of these favorites comes through cleanly?
WTA US Open Predictions
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 9-4 Pegula
That head-to-head tells most of the story. Sabalenka has owned this matchup for years and the last time Pegula beat her was back in 2022, so we're looking at a pretty long losing streak in this rivalry for the American. On hard courts specifically, Sabalenka's heavy ball and relentless aggression from the baseline make Pegula's steady, counterpunching game a tough sell. Pegula is a very good player and she's capable of hanging with anyone on a good day, but Sabalenka at a Slam, on her best surface, is a different animal entirely.
That said, this is the US Open and Pegula is at home and playing well, so don't expect it to be a walkover. I think Sabalenka drops a set at some point before closing it out, which tracks with the prediction.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina
Head-to-head: Zheng 1-4 Rybakina
Zheng is ranked 121st right now, which is a number that doesn't really reflect her ceiling as a player, but it does reflect where she is at the moment, and Rybakina is not someone you want to face when you're short on match sharpness. Rybakina's serve alone, probably the most punishing in the women's game right now, is enough to cause major problems, and Zheng has historically struggled to get a foothold in their meetings, with that lone win being the exception rather than the rule. Hard to see this being competitive at all. Rybakina should still find a way to get through here, all things considered.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Marcin Cholewinski/ZUMA Press Wire