A couple of quarter-final picks from Shanghai today, and both matches have something interesting going on. Let's get into it.
Shanghai Masters Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
Head-to-head: Medvedev 4-1 Paul
That 4-1 head-to-head undersells how comfortable Medvedev has been in this matchup. Paul's only win came on a faster hard court and Medvedev has dominated the more recent meetings, so there's no real reason to think the pattern changes here. Medvedev's ability to absorb pace and redirect the ball makes life genuinely miserable for someone like Paul, who relies on dictating with his forehand and doesn't have the serve to escape long rallies.
Paul's had a solid tournament and he won't be passive, but Medvedev is simply the better hard court player and tends to find another gear in the later rounds. I think this goes three sets just because Paul competes hard and the result feels pretty clear.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud
Head-to-head: First meeting
First meetings are always a bit of a guess, but Jodar at 13 in the world has had a genuinely impressive season and on hard courts he's looked more comfortable than Ruud, who still does his best work on clay. Ruud can be a little passive when he doesn't have that extra bounce to work with, and Jodar has the kind of flat, aggressive ball-striking that exposes that.
Ruud isn't without a chance here, and he's a tough out in best-of-three format. That said, Jodar gets my pick and should have enough on this surface, all things considered. I feel like the ranking gap probably flatters Ruud a bit on this surface.
Prediction: Jodar in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Scott Stuart/ZUMA Press Wire