Three picks from the Hamburg second round today, and with rain threatening all day at 64°F and overcast skies, the conditions are going to be slow and heavy out there. That kind of weather tends to favor the grinders, and it'll be interesting to see how that plays into each of these matchups. Who do you think comes through?
Hamburg Open Predictions
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex De Minaur
Head-to-head: Fokina 3-3 De Minaur
Perfectly level at 3-3, and this one really does feel like a coin flip. Fokina is at his best on slow clay and the heavy Hamburg conditions are about as good as it gets for him. He's erratic, sure, but when everything clicks on this surface he can be a nightmare to play and De Minaur hasn't shown the same kind of clay comfort that makes him dangerous on hardcourt.
De Minaur's speed is always a factor, and he never just rolls over, but the slow, damp conditions strip away some of what makes him so effective. I think Fokina takes this one in a tight three-setter.
Prediction: Fokina in 3
Tommy Paul vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Head-to-head: Paul 2-0 Etcheverry
Paul leads the head-to-head 2-0 but Etcheverry on clay is a different animal from whoever Paul beat in those two meetings, and Hamburg's slow courts are right in the Argentine's wheelhouse. Etcheverry won his first title in Rio earlier this year and has been building steadily, and the wet heavy conditions today suit his grinding baseline style nicely.
That said, Paul is no pushover on clay himself and has been one of the more consistent Americans on the surface over the last couple of seasons. This should go three sets either way, and it's a closer call than the ranking suggests.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton
Head-to-head: First meeting
Clay is easily Shelton's worst surface, and Altmaier is a legitimate clay-court specialist, ranked 64th but with wins over much higher-ranked players on this surface. Hard to see this being competitive at all given the rain and cold today takes pace off the court entirely, and his game is built around generating speed rather than constructing points in long rallies. Altmaier has won matches at this level on clay before and knows exactly what he's doing out there.
Shelton's serve is always a weapon, but it won't be enough to carry him through three sets in these conditions against someone who is genuinely comfortable here, all things considered.
Prediction: Altmaier in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Oscar J. Barroso/AFP7 via ZUMA Press Wire