We've got three picks from the China Open today, and honestly one of them is wild. Djokovic against a Chinese wildcard ranked 104th is the kind of match that writes itself, yet here we are picking against Novak. Let's get into it.
China Open Predictions
Alex De Minaur vs Quentin Halys
Head-to-head: De Minaur 1-1 Halys
The H2H is closer than you'd think for two players this far apart in the rankings, but De Minaur is clearly the better player right now and hard courts are where he does his best work. Halys has the big serve and can hurt anyone on a good day, but stringing together enough good moments over three sets against someone as relentless as De Minaur is a different ask entirely.
De Minaur wins this, though it might take three sets to get there, all things considered.
Prediction: Minaur in 3
Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno-Busta
Head-to-head: Medvedev 5-2 Carreno-Busta
Medvedev leads this one 5-2 all time and has clearly figured out how to handle Carreno-Busta's heavy topspin game, especially on hard courts where he can flatten everything out and hit through the court. PCB is a tough competitor and won't give anything away cheaply, but Medvedev's ball-striking on this surface is a level above and I think the weight of that H2H record matters psychologically too.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Bu Yunchaokete vs Novak Djokovic
Head-to-head: First meeting
Right, so this is the one. Bu Yunchaokete is a 22-year-old wildcard playing in front of a home crowd in Beijing, and he's been on a genuinely impressive run lately, which is the only reason this pick makes any sense at all. Djokovic meanwhile has looked physically off this year and hasn't been near his best form in months, and the crowd factor here is going to be enormous. That said, Bu has the big game to hurt him, the crowd behind him, and Novak doesn't seem to have the legs under him right now to grind out a tough three-setter in this kind of atmosphere. I feel like this is exactly the kind of match that becomes a moment.
Prediction: Yunchaokete in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
Credit Image: © Stephane Thomas/ZUMA Press Wire