Three first-round picks from Chengdu today, with rain threatening throughout and temperatures sitting around 81°F in Sichuan. None of these are obvious walkovers, which makes them worth talking about. Let's get into it.
Chengdu Open Predictions
Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov
Head-to-head: Griekspoor 1-1 Shapovalov
This one's genuinely hard to call. Both players have been inconsistent this season, and ranking-wise they're almost identical right now. Shapovalov when he's on is a different level, with that left-handed ball-striking and the ability to take time away from anyone, but "when he's on" has been doing a lot of heavy lifting lately.
That said, I think the occasion suits Shapo. Hard court is where he's always been most dangerous, and Griekspoor's game, while solid, doesn't have the tools to dominate this kind of matchup from the baseline. Expect it to go three sets either way.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 3
Nuno Borges vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-head: First meeting
Ugo Carabelli is a clay guy through and through, and hard courts are a real problem for him. Borges is comfortable on this surface and ranked nearly 30 spots higher for good reason. Hard to see this being competitive at all.
Prediction: Borges in 3
Sebastian Baez vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: Baez 2-0 Brooksby
Baez has won both previous meetings and, like Ugo Carabelli, you'd wonder how comfortable he is away from clay. That said, Brooksby's ranking tells the story of a player who's been struggling to find his level again after his injury troubles, and his heavy topspin, loopy game doesn't punish opponents the way it needs to on faster hard courts. Baez is the better player of the two right now and should get through, all things considered, even if it takes three sets to do it.
Prediction: Baez in 3
For full predictions on ATP and WTA matches today, check out Uppset.
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